000 AXNT20 KNHC 162259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient will develop across the SW Caribbean waters by 18/0600 UTC generating near gale to gale force E-NE winds across the immediate waters offshore of northern Colombia through Friday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N18W to the Equator near 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 04W-08W...and S of 05N between 33W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 14W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly dry and stable air aloft as noted on water vapor imagery prevails over the Gulf basin this evening. At the surface... overall stability continues within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across northern Alabama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail E of 90W and moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail W of 90W. The high is forecast to shift southeastward to across northern Florida and portions of the SW North Atlc waters with moderate to fresh E-SE winds persisting through Saturday. The next cold front is expected to skirt the NE Gulf waters Saturday night and move southward across the Florida peninsula and far eastern waters into Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NW Venezuela near 09N68W providing much of the Caribbean basin with southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow over western portions feed NE into an upper level trough over the western North Atlc in support of a stationary front analyzed from the Windward Passage region near 20N74W SW to the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Some of the low-level moisture and isolated shower activity W of the front continues to feed across interior portions of northern Nicaragua and much of Honduras. Otherwise...the only other remaining feature across the basin is a weak surface trough axis analyzed from 13N70W to 17N68W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into Friday...generally E of the front...while fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across the NW Caribbean through the overnight W of the front. The overall pressure gradient generating these winds is expected to relax by Sunday afternoon. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region to the NW is providing for isolated to widely scattered showers across Haiti and the adjacent coastal waters W of 72W this evening. The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward through Friday night with isolated to widely scattered showers accompanying fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the boundary. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two cold front have merged across the SW North Atlc this afternoon leaving one cold front analyzed from 32N59W SW to the Turks and Caicos islands near 22N72W then continues stationary through the Windward Passage region into the west-central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N within 120 nm either side of the front...and within 90 nm either side of the remainder of the front S of 24N. High pressure anchored across northern Alabama is expected to continue building eastward through Friday night. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1038 mb high centered N-NW of the Azores near 42N32W. An area of fresh to strong trades is occurring within the southern periphery of the ridging generally from 14N-25N between 33W-55W. This area of stronger winds is expected to weaken by Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN