000 AXNT20 KNHC 161000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient will develop across the south-central Caribbean in 43 hours supporting gale-force winds over the waters north of Colombia mainly south of 13N between 74W-76W. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N17W to 01S39W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ mainly west of 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb surface high is centered over northern Mississippi near 35N89W producing surface ridging along 90W that covers the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for scattered showers to be over the Bay of Campeche with surface return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from east Cuba near 20N74W to east Honduras near 15N83W. Isolated showers are observed along and west of the front. To the east, a surface trough is over the east Caribbean extending from 17N65W to 11N65W. Isolated showers prevail in the vicinity of the trough between 63W-70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh north-easterly winds north of the front while moderate easterly winds prevail south of the front and over most of the basin. The exception is across the waters north of Colombia, where winds are pulsing to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens overnight. This area will experience gale-force winds within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the section above for details. Expect the front to remain stationary for the next 24 hours with showers. The surface trough will continue moving west with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are over the western portion of the island due to low-level moisture in the tradewind flow, and the onset of additional pre-frontal showers. Expect for the front to continue approaching to the island during the next 24 hours enhancing convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N62W to east Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 100 nm of the front north of 28N. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N65W to the north Bahamas at 24N78W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A broad 1039 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic north of our area and extends south across the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic fronts to merge, and for the resultant cold front to move east with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA