000 AXNT20 KNHC 160522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N12W to 04N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N12W to the coast of South America near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ mainly west of 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb surface high is centered over west Kentucky near 36N89W producing surface ridging along 90W that covers the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for scattered showers to be over the Bay of Campeche with surface return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from E Cuba near 20N76W to E Honduras near 15N83W. Isolated showers are observed along and west of the front. To the east, a surface trough is over the E Caribbean extending from 17N65W to 10N65W. Isolated showers prevail in the vicinity of the trough between 62W-68W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh north-easterly winds north of the front while moderate easterly winds prevail south of the front and over the remainder of the basin. Expect the front to remain stationary for the next 24 hours with showers. The surface trough will continue moving west with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are over the island due to low-level moisture in the tradewind flow, and the onset of additional prefrontal showers. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N63W to east Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front north of 28N. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N66W to the north Bahamas at 25N78W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A 1040 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic north of our area and extends south across the remainder of the basin. A surface trough was analyzed over the east Atlantic from 21N35W to 16N37W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic fronts to merge, and for the resultant cold front to move east with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA