000 AXNT20 KNHC 152311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 03N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N13W to 01N35W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 13W- 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S-03N between 39W- 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15/2100 UTC, a 1031 mb high is centered over Arkansas near 34N92W producing surface ridging along 90W over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken, cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the E Gulf E of 88W. 10-20 kt N to NE winds are over Florida and the E Gulf, with cold air advection persisting. The W Gulf and Texas has 10-20 kt E to SE winds with a slight warming trend. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for scattered showers to be over the Bay of Campeche with surface return flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 15/2100 UTC, a quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N75W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 10-15 kt NE winds are N of front. A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 17N64W to 10N64W moving W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-25 kt tradewinds with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More scattered showers are inland over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 13N69W. Upper level subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Upper level moisture is over the W Caribbean and Central America. Expect the front to remain quasi- stationary for the next 24 hours with showers. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the showers over the Leeward and Windward Islands, to move W to 70W, S of Hispaniola. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to low level moisture in the tradewind flow, and the onset of additional prefrontal showers. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 15/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N64W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 26N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N69W to the N Bahamas at 26N78W. Overcast, cold air stratocumulus clouds are NW of the front. A 1038 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 42N38W with surface ridge axis extending SSW to 22N58W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 22N35W to 16N36W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic fronts to merge, and for the resultant cold front to move E to 31N59W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa