000
AXNT20 KNHC 151032
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N17W
to the coast of South America near 02S41W. Isolated moderate 
convection is observed within 100 nm north of these boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the Gulf waters in the 
wake of a cold front that currently entered the west Caribbean.  
The ridge is anchored by a 1033 mb high centered over the central
US. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds
across most of the basin while light to gentle easterly winds 
prevail west of 92W. Cold air advection is noted over the basin. 
Over the next 24 hours, fair weather and cold air advection will 
persist across the Gulf waters. 
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21N77W to east Honduras 
near 15N86W. A weakening cold front extends from 21N79W to 18N88W. 
Cloudiness and isolated showers are along and west of the first 
front described. Gentle northerly winds prevail north of the 
front while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder 
of the basin. The strongest winds persist over the waters north of
Colombia mainly south of 14N between 68W-74W. The fronts are
expected to merge within the next few hours. The new front will 
then continue moving east with showers. 

...HISPANIOLA...

No significant convection is observed across the island at this
time. Expect in 24 hours for showers to develop from the west due
to prefrontal activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to 
central Cuba near 21N77W. A weakening cold front extends from 
31N70W to 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm 
east of the first front mainly north of 27N. A surface trough is 
over the south-central Atlantic extending from 17N60W to 13N60W. 
Another trough was analyzed to the east extending from 24N35W to 
20N36W. No significant convection is related to these features at
this time. Expect during the next 12 hours for the fronts in the 
west Atlantic to merge. The resultant cold front will move east 
enhancing convection.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA