000 AXNT20 KNHC 142321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will produce gale force S to SW winds N of 30N between 69W-72W for a few more hours until 15/0000 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N22W to 00N36W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 03W- 10W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 13W- 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 14/2100 UTC, a small 1024 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N95W producing fair weather. A reinforcing cold front extends from S Florida at 26N80W to the SW Gulf at 22N94W. This front is mostly void of precipitation. 15-20 kt N winds are N of front. Cold air advection is noted over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 82W. Upper level moisture is over the S Gulf S of 23N. Strong subsidence is N of 23N. Expect over the next 12 hours for the front to move SE into the Caribbean Sea. Also expect over the next 24 hours for fair weather and cold air advection to persist. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 14/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N79W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 10-15 kt N winds are N of front. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-25 kt tradewinds with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More scattered showers and isolated convection are inland over N Colombia, Panama , and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Upper level moisture is over the W Caribbean and Central America. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of the cold front to extend from E Cuba to Honduras with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to low level moisture in the tradewind flow. Expect in 24 hours for the onset of additional showers due to prefrontal activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 14/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N74W to S Florida at 26N80W. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 28N34W to 20N35W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic E of the Windward Islands from 17N57W to 11N57W moving W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N and W of 70W supporting the cold fronts. Another upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N between 25W-45W. Expect over the next 12 hours for the W Atlantic fronts to merge. Expect in 24 hours for the resultant cold front to move E to 31N64W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa