000 AXNT20 KNHC 141805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Nor'easter Low north of our area over west Atlantic waters extends a cold front that enters the forecast waters near 31N74W and continues along 23N81W to the coast of Belize near 16N88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front to 69W N of 25N. S to SW gale force winds are N of 29N E of the front to 67W while SE to S gale winds reach to 71W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N77W SW across central Florida and the central Gulf of Mexico. Frequent gusts are off the coast of Jacksonville associated with this second front. These conditions will continue through Wednesday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N17W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N22W SW to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm either side of these boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle to upper level low centered over the Great Lakes supports a Nor'easter low north of our area over west Atlantic waters from which a reinforcing cold front extends SW crossing central Florida near 27N82W, the central gulf near 24N90W with tail reaching the SW basin near 23N96W. A leading cold front extends along the Florida Straits from 25N80W to 23N82W. Scaterred to isolated showers are in the southern Gulf between these two boundaries. A surface ridge anchored over Texas continues to build across the northern Gulf in the wake of the fronts. Scatterometer data continue to show moderate to fresh northerly flow dominating most of the basin. The reinforcing cold front will continue to move southeast across Florida through tonight supporting showers. High pressure will then dominate Wedneday and Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front entered the NW Caribbean earlier this morning and by 1500 UTC extends across W Cuba near 22N82W to Belize coastal waters near 17N88W. Diffluence aloft generated by the upper trough that supports the front and a middle level ridge centered over Hispaniola support scattered to isolated showers in the vicinity of the front W of 81W. Patches of low level moisture continue to move across Hispaniola supporting scattered to isolated showers mainly across the southern region of the island. Similar shower activity has started across the Windward Islands as a screaming eagle over tropical Atlantic waters continue to approach. Scatterometer data continue to show moderate trades in the central and eastern basin, except for fresh to strong along the coast of Colombia and N of the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to light winds are in the NW basin. The cold front will continue to move southeast across Cuba and the NW Caribbean through early morning Thursday, then it will stall while it dissipates through early Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to isolated showers are observed mainly across the southern island associated with patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow. Shower activity will be limited through Wed afternoon when the proximity of a cold front to move across eastern Cuba will produce scattered to heavy showers mainly across the western half of the Island. Showers are expected to continue through Friday as a the tail of a reinforcing cold front approaches the northern waters of the Island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of cold fronts are in the SW N Atlantic waters associated with a Nor'easter low north of the area. There are two gale warnings in this region associated with both fronts. For further details about the gale conditions and fronts associated convection, please refer to the Special Features section. In the central Atlantic, the tail of a stationary front weakens along 30N50W to 28N57W. A surface trough extends from 17N52W to 14N53W. To the east, near-gale winds are along the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands due to a very tight surface pressure gradient in the area. These winds will weaken tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos