000 AXNT20 KNHC 141000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Nor'easter Low is developing north of our area over the west Atlantic with a cold front extending south from the low to 31N78W to 29N81W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail along and east of the front and low between 73W-79W. The tight pressure gradient east of the front is producing gale-force southeast winds over the west Atlantic waters north of 30N between 72W-78W. These conditions will continue through tonight. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to 05N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Isolated showers are observed along these boundaries between 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the northwest Florida near 28N82W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to 21N87W then across the Yucatan Peninsula to near 17N92W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N81W to 23N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in radar imagery currently affecting the eastern Gulf waters mainly east of 85W and Florida Peninsula. A secondary cold front extends from 30N86W to 27N90W. No significant convection is related to this feature at this time. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the fronts, with a 1025 mb high centered over northeast Texas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing across most of the basin while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the front mainly east of 83W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to move northeast to the South Carolina coast and dissipate along a cold front. The cold front will continue moving southeast over the Florida Peninsula and across the far east Gulf waters then entering the western Caribbean and west Atlantic with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb surface low is centered over north Colombia near 10N73W. With this, the pressure gradient is enough to support fresh to strong easterly winds mainly south of 13N between 73W-76W as noted in scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture across the basin which is enhancing isolated quick-moving showers across the area. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea, except over the NW Caribbean where upper-level moisture is noted. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to enter the west Caribbean with convection. This front will continue moving east across the east and central Caribbean through the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time. Expect through the next 48 hours for convection to increase from the west as a cold front approaches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N78W to 29N81W. The pressure gradient east of this front is strong enough to support gale-force winds north of 30N between 72W-78W. Please refer to the section above for details. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic analyzed from 31N50W to 28N53W, then weakening to 27N66W. Isolated showers are observed along the northern portion of the front mainly north of 30N. A surface trough extends from 25N33W to 21N32W. Another trough was analyzed from 17N52W to 14N53W. To the east, near-gale to gale-force winds are along the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands due to a very tight surface pressure gradient in the area. These winds will weaken tonight. Expect during the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic cold front to continue moving east with convection. The central Atlantic front will dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA