000 AXNT20 KNHC 140527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Nor'easter Low is developing north of our area over the west Atlantic with a cold front extending south from the low to 31N79W to 30N81W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail along and east of the front and low. The tight pressure gradient east of the front is producing gale- force southeast winds over the west Atlantic waters north of 30N between 72W-78W. These conditions will continue through Tuesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 14W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to 19N92W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are observed in radar imagery currently affecting the eastern Gulf waters east of mainly east of 84W and Florida Peninsula. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front, with a 1021 mb high centered over southern Texas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds prevailing across most of the basin while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the front south of 25N east of 83W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to move northeast to the South Carolina coast and dissipate along a cold front. The cold front will continue moving southeast over the Florida Peninsula and across the far east Gulf waters then entering the western Caribbean and west Atlantic with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb surface low is centered over north Colombia near 08N75W. With this, the pressure gradient is enough to support fresh to strong easterly winds mainly south of 13N between 73W-76W as noted in scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture across the basin which is enhancing isolated quick-moving showers across the area. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea, except over the NW Caribbean where upper-level moisture is noted. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to enter the west Caribbean with convection. This front will continue moving east across the east and central Caribbean through the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time. Expect through the next 48 hours for convection to increase from the west as a cold front approaches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N79W to 30N81W. The pressure gradient east of this front is strong enough to support gale-force winds north of 30N between 72W-78W. Please refer to the section above for details. A frontal system extends across the central Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 32N49W to 26N59W then as a stationary front from that point to 27N67W. Isolated showers are observed along the northern portion of the cold front north of 27N. A surface trough extends from 27N35W to 20N32W. To the east, near-gale to gale-force winds are along the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands due to a very tight surface pressure gradient in the area. Expect during the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic cold front to continue moving east with convection. The central Atlantic frontal system will dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA