000 AXNT20 KNHC 132339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... On 14/0600 UTC a Nor'easter Low will be centered over the North Carolina coast near 36N77W with a cold front extending S from the low to Jacksonville Florida near 30N81W. A tight pressure gradient E of the front will produce gale force SE to S winds over the SW North Atlc waters N of 29N between 67W-73W Monday night, continuing through Tuesday night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 05N15W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N20W to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 14W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 23W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 13/2100 UTC, a 1010 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N97W. A cold front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. A warm front extends E from the low to N Florida near 29N82W. Lightning detection imagery shows numerous lightning strikes within 60 nm E of the cold front, N of 24N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 81W-88W, to include N Florida. In the upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture is over the Gulf, except over the NW Gulf and S Texas where strong subsidence is noted. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface low to move NE to the South Carolina coast and dissipate along a cold front. This cold front will extend as far S of S Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1004 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 08N76W. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and lightest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More scattered showers and isolated convection are inland over NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. Further more, scattered showers are over W Panama , and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea, except over the NW Caribbean where upper level moisture is noted. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to extend from S Florida to N of the Yucatan Peninsula with convection over Cuba, the NW Caribbean, and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N80W to N Florida near 29N82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 26N60W to 26N66W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 28N34W to 20N30W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough N of 24N. Elsewhere, near gale to gale winds are along the coast of Morocco due to a very tight surface pressure gradient. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-65W supporting the stationary front. An upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N27W. Expect in 24 hours for the W Atlantic cold front to extend from 31N73W to S Florida near 25N80W with convection. Also expect the central Atlantic front to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa