000 AXNT20 KNHC 130155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient between a low off the coast of South Carolina and a high off the New Jersey coast will produce near gale to gale force SE winds over the SW North Atlc waters N of 30N between 68W-73W Monday evening, continuing until Tuesday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N17W to 04N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N24W to 00N40W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-06N E of 12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N- 05N between 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from central Florida near 28N81W to a 1013 mb low over the NW Gulf of Mexico 26N92W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N93W producing a wind shift. 15-20 kt NE winds are N of the front. 10 kt SE to S winds are S of the front. In the upper levels, slight ridging is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper air moisture is over most of the Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the low to move to SE Louisiana. Expect a cold front to extend SW of the low to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Also expect a warm front to extend E of the low to S Georgia. Moderate convection will be over the E Gulf of Mexico E of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations of Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to central Florida at 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N54W to 27N60W to 26N72W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this front. A 1037 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 42N20W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to 28N50W. Of note in the upper levels, the base of a longwave upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 28N supporting a cold front. Another upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-65W supporting the other cold front. A third upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N between 20W-35W. Expect in 24 hours for the W Atlantic cold front to lift NE out of the area, while the Central Atlantic front moves E to 31N51W with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa