000 AXNT20 KNHC 120550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 AM EST Sun Mar 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 06N18W to 04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N22W to 01N32W to the Equator near 39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 09W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 22W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... While upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails over much of the Gulf basin this evening...pockets of mid-level energy are noted on water vapor imagery embedded within weak shortwave troughing over the northern Gulf coast and eastern Texas supporting a 1012 mb low centered near 27N96W and a surface trough extending N-NE from the low to 30N94W. In addition...a cold front meanders from east-central Georgia to southern Louisiana to a 1017 mb low centered near 32N97W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of a line from 24N97W to 30N85W...including a large portion of the inland coastal plain from central Georgia to eastern Texas this evening. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds and mostly clear skies. The area of low pressure across the NW Gulf waters is forecast to drift S-SE across the western Gulf through Monday as fresh to strong N-NE winds occur N of the frontal boundary along 27N/28N. The low will weaken by late Monday into Tuesday across the central Gulf waters as the remainder of the frontal boundary will push SE and eventually E of the basin by Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then build in Tuesday providing moderate N-NE winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The basin continues to be under the influence of relatively dry and stable conditions aloft due to an upper level ridge. While overall conditions at the surface remain fairly tranquil...low- level cloudiness and isolated shower activity is occurring across the Mona and Windward Passage regions and across Hispaniola this evening generally N of 16N between 66W-75W. Isolated showers are also occurring across the Lesser Antilles S of 18N between 60W- 64W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected to continue through Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated shower activity continues across the region including the adjacent coastal waters and Mona and Windward Passages. Conditions are expected to improve Sunday night into Monday as a frontal boundary to the N across the SW North Atlc region moves eastward and then N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc with axis extending from 35N54W to a broad base near 28N62W. This troughing supports a cold front from 32N58W to 27N66W then becomes stationary to 27N75W to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N within 90 nm E of the cold front. The front is forecast to move eastward and eventually become diffuse across the central Atlc waters between 50W-60W by Monday. Farther east...surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the central Atlc and much of the eastern waters anchored by a 1035 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 40N26W. The ridge axis extends from the high SW to 32N39W to 24N62W. Embedded within the southeastern periphery of the ridge...a surface trough is analyzed from 24N19W to 31N27W supported aloft by a mid-level low centered near 29N26W. No significant convection is occurring with the trough...however near gale to gale force NE winds were noted on recent ASCAT data from 28N35N between 15W-31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN