000 AXNT20 KNHC 111726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N20W to 00N37W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 14W-27W, and from 03S-01N between 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to 27N87W to SE Texas near 30N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 25N and W of 89W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 17N93W producing a wind shift. 15 kt NE winds are N of the front over the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, slight ridging is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper air moisture is over the NW Gulf and subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dissipate over the Gulf, while a new cold front will extend from S Louisiana to S Texas with convection and 25 kt NE winds NW of front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, slight ridging is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 27N75W to S Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N38W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to 25N60W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the cold front. An upper level low is also over the E Atlantic near 28N23W producing scattered showers. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to reach 31N56W to 26N61W to the central Bahamas with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA