000 AXNT20 KNHC 111119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 03N18W to 03N24W to 02N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N27W to 01N30W to the Equator near 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 14W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 21W-30W...and S of 02N between 36W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... While upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails over much of the Gulf basin this morning...mid-level energy embedded within weak shortwave troughing over southern Texas and the NW Gulf waters is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 24N W of 90W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of weak surface ridging...however a weak cold front bridges this ridge and a stronger ridge anchored across the Midwest. The cold front extends from the central Florida peninsula from 29N83W to 30N89W providing a brief period of fresh NE winds across the NE Gulf waters this morning with the remainder of the basin experiencing moderate anticyclonic winds. By Saturday night...an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the far NW Gulf with the associated cold front emerging off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday morning. The low will introduce fresh to strong E-NE winds generally N of 26N W of 89W on Sunday then gradually diminishing through Monday as the low pushes eastward toward the Florida peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... The basin continues to be under the influence of relatively dry and stable conditions aloft due to an upper level ridge. While overall conditions at the surface remain fairly tranquil...low- level cloudiness and isolated shower activity is occurring across the Mona and Windward Passage region and across Hispaniola...as well as the Gulf of Honduras region this morning. Isolated showers N of 15N between 65W-77W are occurring in the vicinity of a surface trough extending from 18N72W to 22N71W across Hispaniola. Isolated showers are also occurring S of 18N W of 85W...including inland portions of Honduras...Belize...and Guatemala across Central America. Moderate to fresh trades are expected to continue through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated shower activity continue across the region including the adjacent coastal waters in the vicinity of a surface trough analyzed from 18N72W to 22N71W. The troughing is expected to drift westward and lift N of the area by Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc with axis extending from 35N65W to a broad base near 30N71W. This troughing supports a cold front from 32N67W to the Florida peninsula near Daytona Beach. A pre-frontal trough extends from the cold front near 30N71W SW to 28N78W then S-SW to 25N80W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 27N between 60W-72W. Farther east across the central Atlc... another surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N38W. Finally across the eastern Atlc...broad surface troughing prevails off the coast of western Africa extending from near 29N23W to the African coast near Dakar Senegal. Isolated showers are possible N of 28N between 17W-25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN