000 AXNT20 KNHC 102358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N26W to 0N36W to the coast of Brazil near 2S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 06N between 11W and 26W and from 03S to 02N W of 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level diffluent flow in the NW Gulf and low to middle level abundant moisture in the W basin continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 24N W of 90W. A surface trough is analyzed in this region as well, which extends from 28N94W to inland NE Mexico near 22N98W. Mosaic Doppler Radar confirms the presence of this convective activity. A thermal trough formed over the Yucatan Peninsula during afternoon hours will move over the Bay of Campeche at night, thus supporting a surge of fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east winds through Sunday night. Otherwise, the remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a surface ridge with mostly moderate E-SE winds. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to clip the north- central and NE Gulf waters tonight. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are briefly expected behind the front over the NE Gulf through Saturday morning. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf region Sunday morning. A weak low is expected to form along the frontal boundary dragging a cold front across the remainder of the Gulf through early next week. Model guidance suggests fresh to strong NE winds behind the front, and across the NW and N-central waters on Sunday, with seas building to 6-7 ft. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest ASCAT pass continue to provide observations of 20-25 kt NE-E winds over the south-central Caribbean while fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean. These winds are forecast to diminish tonight into Saturday across the basin as high pressure located north of the area continues to shift farther eastward. A patch of abundant moisture is noted between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic associated with a surface trough that extends from 18N68W to 15N68W. A middle level diffluent environment aloft supports scattered showers in both islands as well as the Mona Passage. Shower activity associated with this surface and middle level features will continue across Hispaniola through the remainder weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A patch of abundant moisture is noted between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic associated with a surface trough that extends from 18N68W to 15N68W. A middle level diffluent environment just E-SE of the Dominican Republic supports scattered showers across Hispaniola as well as the Mona Passage. Shower activity associated with this surface and middle level features will continue through the remainder weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1028 mb located near 29N47W extends a ridge westward across much of the forecast area west of 30W to NE of the southern Bahamas. A low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 25N28W connecting a stationary front to a cold front that extends from the low to 14N35W. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and this low will support near gale conditions west of the low center. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the low and the stationary front N of 26N between 23W and 28W. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong trade winds across the southern periphery of the aforementioned high. A cold front will enter the discussion area reaching from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by early Saturday morning, and from 31N58W to south Florida by Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly follow the front through late Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos