000 AXNT20 KNHC 090603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The conditions starting at 09/0000 UTC: NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 12N between 72W and 78W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 36W, and to 03S41W along the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N southward from 54W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough has moved into the Atlantic Ocean, along the U.S.A. East Coast. The cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the trough is to the north of 32N. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 56W westward. A cold front passes through 32N77W to 30N81W. The front becomes stationary from 30N81W, across Florida, to 29N84W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 27N90W, and to the Texas coast near 27N97W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to the NW of the line that passes through 32N66W 27N80W 27N90W. in the Gulf of Mexico: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N southward from 90W westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 22N96W 20N95W 18N93W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KXIH and KEIR. MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB, KSPR, KMDJ, KIKT, and KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR in Port Isabel. LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR at the Kingsville NAS and in Alice. LIFR in Rockport, Victoria, Port Lavaca. IFR in Palacios. LIFR in Bay City, Angleton/Lake Jackson, and Galveston. IFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. LIFR in the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities. IFR in Conroe. MVFR in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: VFR around Lake Pontchartrain. MVFR elsewhere from Baton Rouge southward. MISSISSIPPI and ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: LIFR in Perry, Cross City, and Brooksville. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Nicaragua eastward. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 80W eastward. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Jamaica northward from Hispaniola westward. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from 70W eastward. NE-to-E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from Jamaica southward from 70W westward. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds, across much of the area, including moving across parts of Central America from Honduras southward, except from 13N southward from 80W eastward, and from 84W westward. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.35 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. the light rain from the last observation has ended for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will become W, and then NW, during the first 18 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast period. NW wind flow will continue until the end of day two. A ridge will extend from Colombia to 06N96W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean at the beginning of day one, and from Colombia to 09N97W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will start on top of the SE Bahamas. The anticyclonic circulation center will move eastward and then southeastward, dissipating about 100 nm to the ENE of Puerto Rico. Day two will start with southerly wind flow across the area, becoming SW wind flow for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. An inverted trough will give cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola for the rest of day one. Expect SE wind flow for day two. An anti- cyclonic circulation center will be about 90 nm to the E of Puerto Rico at the start of day two. The anticyclonic circulation center will end up about 90 nm to the N of the Mona Passage by the end of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 20N northward between 23W and 56W. A cold front passes through 32N32W to 22N40W and 20N48W. The front is stationary from 20N48W to 16N60W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes through 32N29W to 20N33W and 13N60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30N northward from 25W eastward, and from 05N northward between Africa and the 32N32W 16N60W frontal boundary. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is between the 32N32W-16N60W frontal boundary and the western Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary that passes through 32N77W to Florida. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 32N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT