000 AXNT20 KNHC 081736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warnings... A strong pressure gradient generated between the high pressure centered over the west Atlantic near 34N62W and lower pressure analyzed across northwestern South America will support near- gale to gale-force winds along the coast of N Colombia, each night and early morning, through Friday morning. Gale force winds are presently from 10N-12N between 72W-77W with NE to E winds 30-35 KT, and seas 11-13 FT. This gale is forecast to go below gale criteria shortly. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N20W to 00N30W to the coast of South America near 03S44W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to the North Central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to S Texas near 26N98W. 15 kt NE winds are N of the front. 10-20 kt E winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 18N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, the base of a large upper level trough is over the N Gulf supporting the cold front. A very small upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W supporting the surface trough. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front to move E into the W Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... Near-gale to gale-force winds are over the N coast of Colombia. See above. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and E Cuba. More scattered showers are over the southern Windward Islands and the the coast of Venezuela. Additional showers are over N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rico, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels dry and stable air aloft prevails across the basin. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are mostly over Hispaniola due to low level moisture moving W with the tradewind flow. Expect more showers over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 34N62W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 25N40W to 17N58W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Atlantic. The base of a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic between 30W-60W. A small upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near 30N15W producing showers. Expect the central Atlantic front to move E to 31N29W over the next 24 hours with showers. Also expect in 24 hours for a new cold front to be over the W Atlantic extending from 31N75W to Central Florida near 29N81W, with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA