000 AXNT20 KNHC 072329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean generated between the high pressure centered over the west Atlantic near 34N70W and a low pressure analyzed across northwestern South America. Near-gale to gale-force winds are expected to develop each night and early morning through Thursday night within about 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to go below gale criteria by the late morning hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N16W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. No significant convection is related to these boundaries at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The southwestern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across the west Atlantic near 34N70W is producing mostly fair weather across the basin. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails across the Gulf. A cold front is approaching the coast of Texas with abundant convection at this time. This front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf waters tonight and move across the northern half of the basin during the next 24 hours. Little change in weather conditions is expected over the southern half of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Near-gale to gale-force winds will continue pulsing over the south-central Caribbean through Thursday. Please refer to the section above for details. A broad high pressure prevails across the western Atlantic and extends south reaching the Caribbean. Satellite and Doppler Radar imagery depict isolated showers prevailing near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly winds prevailing across the basin. Expect little change during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed across the island and adjacent waters due to the remnants of a cold front. Expect for this activity to continue through the night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of high pressure prevails across the west Atlantic centered by a 1033 mb high near 33N70W. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N36W to 19N57W. Isolated showers are observed along this boundary. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 41N11W. Expect for the cold front to continue moving east. A new cold front will enter the west Atlantic with convection by Wednesday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA