000 AXNT20 KNHC 062324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warnings... A strong pressure gradient generated between the high pressure centered over the west Atlantic near 35N75W and lower pressure analyzed across northwestern South America will support near-gale to gale-force winds each night and early morning within about 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue through Thursday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. The strong high pressure described above is also enhancing winds over the Windward Passage coupled with a cold front that currently extends from 19N63W to 17N73W. Near-gale to gale-force easterly winds are expected across the Windward Passage region and adjacent Caribbean Sea waters through the next 24 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N18W to the Equator near 20W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 22W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level ridging continues building in over the Gulf basin this afternoon. At the surface...the southwestern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered across the west Atlantic near 35N75W is providing fresh to strong easterly winds east of 90W while moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevail west of 90W. The wind field is forecast to gradually diminish through Tuesday night with the next weak frontal boundary expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near-gale to gale-force winds forecast across the Windward Passage region today and off the coast of Colombia the next few days (see section above for details), dry and stable air aloft prevails across the basin along with fairly tranquil conditions at the surface. The primary feature impacting the basin is the tip of a cold front, analyzed from 18N66W to 17N73W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm on either side of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the basin, with highest speeds prevailing across the northern half of the basin. The high pressure will be anchored across the west Atlantic region for much of the week ahead, therefore, little change is expected. ...HISPANIOLA... A cold front extends south of the island bringing cloudiness and isolated showers to the region. Aside from the near-gale to gale- force northeast winds occurring in the Windward Passage area, fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to continue across the island through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic north of 20N west of 60W. A cold front extends from 32N42W to 18N66W. Isolated showers are observed along the front mainly north of 28N. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 37N14W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA