000 AXNT20 KNHC 051702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1202 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong pressure gradient between high pressure anchored across the SE CONUS and lower pressure analyzed across northwestern South America is forecast to pulse winds into near gale to gale force levels each night and early morning within about 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue through Wednesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Strong high pressure is centered across the SE CONUS and continues to build in across the Florida Straits region behind a cold front analyzed from 24N70W to the central coast of Cuba near 23N79W. Near gale to gale force E winds continue across the Straits and are expected to persist through early Monday. As the front moves E of the Windward Passage region by tonight into early Monday...near gale to gale force NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage and adjacent Caribbean Sea waters. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 03N15W to 02N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N22W to the Equator near 24W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 05W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere S of 03N between 39W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level shortwave troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the NW Gulf waters and eastern Texas. While no lower-level or surface feature has materialized across this area...scattered showers and tstms are occurring across much of the western Gulf W of 90W due largely to mid-level lifting dynamics and upper level diffluence. Otherwise...the southwestern periphery of surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1037 mb high centered across Virginia and North Carolina. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are expected to continue across much of the Gulf through Monday...gradually diminishing through early Tuesday from west to east as the high center moves eastward into the SW and west-central North Atlc region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near gale to gale force winds forecast off the coast of Colombia the next few days...the Caribbean basin is under the influence of dry and stable air aloft...along with fairly tranquil conditions at the surface. A few passing isolated showers are possible across the Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico... and Hispaniola...otherwise the main impact of having a strengthened pressure gradient across the basin is expected to be fresh to strong trades prevailing through early Friday. The high pressure will be anchored across the SW North Atlc region for much of the week ahead. ...HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery depicts strong subsidence over the island with west-southwesterly flow aloft. Low-level moisture transported by trade wind flow is supporting isolated showers this afternoon across the island and adjacent coastal waters. A cold front lies to the N along 22N/23N and will reach the island by tonight increasing NE winds into fresh to strong breeze levels. The winds are forecast to persist through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc region from 32N50W SW to the central Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 23N79W. The cold front is currently merging with a dissipating stationary front that lies within 90 nm SE of the cold front. A 210 nm wide band of widely scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of the two fronts. Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail N of the front as ridging remains anchored across the mid-Atlc coast on a 1037 mb high centered across Virginia and North Carolina. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered W of the Madeira Islands near 33N22W. One exception is a middle to upper level low centered near 25N29W that supports a surface trough extending from 21N29W to 28N27W. Isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring from 21N-29N between 16W-28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN