000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The conditions starting at 05/0000 UTC: Expect for the next 12 hours or so, NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 12.5N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN DEVELOPING GALE... The 12-HOUR forecast consists of a cold front from 31N50W to 24N60W, then stationary to 22N77W. for the STRAITS OF FLORIDA S of 24N between 80W and 82W: NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching to 11 feet. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 06/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale, in CANARIAS and CAPE VERDE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W, to 01N30W, to the Equator along 35W and 38W, to 02S44W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N southward between 06W and 08W, and from 04N southward between 12W and 16W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N southward. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating precipitation from 04N to 08N between 11W and 16W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An anticyclonic circulation center is in the coastal waters of the SW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from a 1021 mb low pressure center that is near 26N99W along the Texas/Mexico border, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the stationary front. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N northward from 95W westward. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: KMZG, KBQX, KXIH, KVAF, KHQI, KVQT, KGRY, and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR and rain in the Lower Valley/the Deep South, and in the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. light rain in Jasper. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that is to the east of the line that runs from the NE coast of Nicaragua to the Windward Passage. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb spans the entire area. Anticyclonic wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb covers the area that is to the west of the line from the NE coast of Nicaragua to the Windward Passage. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds, mainly from 75W eastward, and from 15N northward from 75W westward. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... NE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow will be from the NE, the N, and finally from the NW during day one, in a W-to-E oriented ridge from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola. A mixture of NW wind flow and broad anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area, with a Gulf of Mexico-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of a stationary front, that passes through 32N50W to 27N60W 24N70W, across Cuba to 21N82W in the Caribbean Sea. A cold front follows the stationary front, to the NW of it, passing through 32N55W, to 30N60W 27N70W 27N75W 28N79W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N50W to 27N60W, and then within 90 nm on either side of 28N60W 25N70W 22N80W. An upper level trough/shear axis is along 31N24W, to a 23N28W cyclonic circulation center, and continuing to 18N37W 14N45W and 11N51W. The frontal boundary that was being associated with this feature during the last few days has weakened and dissipated. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the 32N50W-to-Cuba stationary front, eastward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 31N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT