000 AXNT20 KNHC 042344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the high pressure anchored across the eastern CONUS and lower pressure analyzed across northwestern South America is forecast to enhance winds to pulse to gale-force each night and early morning within about 90 nm of the northwest coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue through Wednesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Atlantic/GOM Gale Warning... A cold front is moving across the northwest Caribbean and western Atlantic. With a strong high pressure building in the wake of the front, gale-force winds are expected to develop across the Florida Straits by Sunday morning. These conditions will continue through early Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 00N28W. The ITCZ extends from 00N28W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between 07W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the majority of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered over the southeast CONUS. To the west, a 1023 mb surface low is centered over northeast Mexico extending a stationary front from the low to 25N98W to 18N94W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin except west of the front over the Bay of Campeche where fresh northerly winds prevail. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to continue across much of the Gulf through Sunday, then gradually shift to the southeast by Sunday morning as the surface high moves eastward into the western Atlantic region. Gale force winds are expected to develop across the Florida Straits by Sunday morning. Please refer to the section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak frontal boundary extends across the northwest Caribbean, analyzed as a dissipating cold front from 20N85W to 21N80W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are expected along and northwest of this boundary. Gale-force winds are expected to develop each night across the south-central Caribbean waters south of 14N between 72W-79W. Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the basin. These winds are transporting enough low- level moisture to enhance scattered showers mainly across the northern portion of the basin affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Little change is expected through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery depicts strong subsidence over the island with west-southwesterly flow aloft. Low-level moisture transported by trade wind flow is supporting isolated showers this afternoon across the island and adjacent coastal waters. The remnant energy from a dissipated cold front is expected to reach the island by Sunday. Northeast winds are expected to increase to fresh to occasional strong breeze levels during the day on Sunday and persist through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N62W to 29N78W. Another cold front extends from 31N53W to 22N78W. This second front is enhancing winds/seas/convection across the northern coast of Cuba and the Bahamas at this time, with altimeter data showing sea heights ranging between 10-13 ft across the Florida Straits. These conditions will prevail at least through the next 24 hours, and coastal flooding is possible across the northern coast of Cuba and some the southern Bahamas. Gale-force winds are expected to develop across the Florida Straits by Sunday morning. Please refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA