000 AXNT20 KNHC 041710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1209 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong pressure gradient between high pressure anchored across the eastern CONUS and lower pressure analyzed across northwestern South America is forecast to pulse winds into near gale to gale force levels each night and early morning within about 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia. This conditions will continue through Wednesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 06N16W to 03N20W to 01N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N27W to the Equator near 29W then along the Equator to 35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 07N between 10W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere S of 04N between 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level ridging is noted on water vapor imagery over the Gulf basin as an upper level trough over NW Mexico approaches from the west. Mid-level shortwave energy embedded within the troughing supports a weak 1023 mb low centered across NE Mexico and a stationary front extending S-SE from the low to 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front and across the NW Gulf waters N of 25N W of 92W. Otherwise...ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored across the eastern CONUS with the exception of a dissipating cold front analyzed from western Cuba near 23N80W to 22N90W. Isolated showers are occurring generally S of 24N E of 87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to continue across much of the Gulf through Sunday...gradually shifting E-SE by Sunday morning as the high center moves eastward into the SW North Atlc region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near gale to gale force winds forecast off the coast of Colombia the next few days...the Caribbean basin is under the influence of dry and stable air aloft...along with fairly tranquil conditions at the surface. A few passing isolated showers are possible across the Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola...otherwise moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Sunday night. Thereafter...strong high pressure will be anchored across the mid-Atlc coast and adjacent coastal waters strengthening the pressure gradient across the basin resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery depicts strong subsidence over the island with west-southwesterly flow aloft. Low-level moisture transported by trade wind flow is supporting isolated showers this afternoon across the island and adjacent coastal waters. The remnant energy from a dissipated cold front is expected to reach the island by Sunday. NE winds are expected to increase to fresh to occasional strong breeze levels during the day on Sunday and persist through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc region from 32N55W SW to the central Bahamas near 24N75W to western Cuba near 23N81W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within 45 nm SE of the front and 120 nm NW of the front. A secondary cold front extends from near Bermuda to 30N74W. Fresh to strong winds prevail N of the front as ridging remains anchored across the Ohio River valley on a 1040 mb high near 39N83W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 31N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN