000 AXNT20 KNHC 041155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The conditions starting at 04/0600 UTC: Expect for the next 9 hours or so, NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the Equator along 29W, to 02S33W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 04N to 06N between 12W and 16W, and from 02N to 04N between 17W and 19W. scattered moderate to strong from 01N southward between 07W and 11W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 07N southward from 36W eastward, and from 03N southward between 40W and Brazil. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level-to-upper level ridge extends from the W sections of the Yucatan Peninsula to the middle Texas coast. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving through the Atlantic Ocean, on top of the area of a cold front that passes through 32N58W, to 26N70W, to Cuba near 22N80W, to 22N87W just off the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes dissipating stationary from 22N87W to a 1022 mb low pressure center that is near 22N96W. The stationary front continues from the 1022 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 90W westward in the Gulf of Mexico. Broken low level to middle level clouds are in the Gulf of Mexico to the south of 29N91W 26N82W. Rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the line that passes through 32N54W to 25N70W and 22N77W. Surface high pressure passes through the deep south of Texas, through the coastal plains of Mexico, between the coast and 100W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: KGRY and KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: Rain in the Lower Valley/the Deep South. MVFR in Laredo. earlier rainfall in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area, in Galveston, in Pearland, and in the southern sections of the Houston metropolitan area has ended for the moment. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that is to the east of the line that runs from the central coast of Nicaragua to SE Cuba. Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of broken low level clouds mostly from Jamaica southward from 78W eastward, and from Jamaica southwestward to interior sections of Central America from Nicaragua to Guatemala and Belize. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 04/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.15 in Guadeloupe and 0.04 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. SE wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb. NE-to-E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow will be from the SE, followed by an inverted trough, and then from the NE. A ridge that will extend from the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to Hispaniola will push the inverted trough eastward and out of the area. Expect NE wind flow for the last half of day one and the first half of day two. The 48-hour forecast period will end with NW wind flow moving across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will be moving across the area from an inverted trough, for the first 18 hours or so. The inverted trough will be pushed to the east of Hispaniola. Expect NW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough/shear axis is along 24N30W 18N43W and 15N51W 14N60W. The frontal boundary that was being associated with this feature during the last few days has weakened and dissipated. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the 32N58W-to-22N80W in Cuba cold front, eastward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT