000 AXNT20 KNHC 031159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The conditions starting at 03/0600 UTC: Expect for the next 9 hours or so, NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The current conditions starting at 03/0600 UTC: A cold front is along 26.5N82W 24N95W 18.5N94W. Expect gale-force NW winds and sea heights building to 8 feet to 11 feet, to the south of 21N within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect these conditions to be weakening with time, and at less than gale-force during the next hour or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area: AGADIR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to the Equator along 27W, to 03S38W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 04N southward between 19W and 29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 06N between 12W and 15W, and from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W in parts of Brazil and coastal French Guiana. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area, and in the Atlantic Ocean on top the current cold front. A cold front passes through 32N68W, to a 1019 mb low pressure center that is near 27N79W. The cold front crosses South Florida near 26N81W, and it continues to 25N90W and 24N96W and 17N94W in the northern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 17N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to 22N between 93W and 96W. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N63W to 25N80W in the Straits of Florida; and elsewhere in broken to overcast multilayered clouds that cover much of the Gulf of Mexico, especially from 25N northward, and from 90W westward. Surface high pressure passes through the deep south of Texas, through the coastal plains of Mexico, between the coast and 100W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Naples and Marathon Key, and in parts of the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-to-E middle level-to-upper level wind flow is moving through the Caribbean Sea. Some of the 350 mb to 500 mb flow becomes anticyclonic just to the west and northwest of Jamaica. The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is: from the NE from 15N northward from 70W westward, from the SE-to-E near the Netherlands Antilles, and from the NE from Jamaica westward. Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of broken low level clouds, mostly to the east of 77W, and from Jamaica southwestward to interior sections of Nicaragua and Honduras. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.03 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... E wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a ridge will be on top of Hispaniola for the first 12 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. SW wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow will be from the NE to E to SE during day one. A trough will move across Hispaniola during the first 6 hours to 12 hours of day two, as a cyclonic circulation center moves to the south of the Mona Passage. NE wind flow will move across the area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. An E-to-W oriented ridge will extend from the Yucatan Peninsula to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area for the first 12 hours or so. Multiple inverted troughs will move across Hispaniola during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect broad cyclonic wind flow with the troughs. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 24N72W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the northwest of the 32N13W 16N60W trough. An upper level trough passes through 32N13W, to a 25N32W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N45W 17N56W and 16N60W. A cold front passes through 32N14W to 29N20W 29N30W, to a 1026 mb low pressure center that is near 27N33W, to 23N40W and 22N45W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 10N northward between Africa and 65W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 27N09W in the northeastern part of the Western Sahara. A surface trough extends from the low center to 28N18W. Please read the paragraph in the SPECIAL FEATURES section about gale-force winds in the area of METEO- FRANCE. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the north and northwest of the 32N14W-22N45W cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that is near 33N38W, through 32N43W, to 27N54W 26N63W, to 24N77W near the Bahamas, and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT