000 AXNT20 KNHC 021204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Current conditions: Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The 12-hour forecast consists of a cold front from 29N83W to 23N97W to 21N97.5W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 9 feet, from 22N to 24N to the W of 97W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to to the Equator along 28W, to 03S36W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between 20W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible from 11N southward between 50W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the area. Large-scale anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to just off the coast of SE Louisiana, to 26N95W, to the Mexico coast near 24N98W, to 25N100W inland in Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the NW of the line that passes through 30N81W 26N90W 25N94W 22N98W. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 34N50W, through 32N55W, to 28N65W 25N72W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 21N87W at the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KGHB and KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. Heavy rain and IFR in Perry. LIFR in Cross City. IFR in Brooksville. LIFR/IFR in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Sarasota. IFR in Punta Gorda. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-to-E middle level-to-upper level wind flow is moving through the Caribbean Sea. E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb covers the area that is from 13N northward. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is in the SW corner of the area. Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of broken low level clouds, mostly to the east of the line from the central coastal sections of Honduras to 80W at the coast of Cuba. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.24 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... NE wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for the first 12 hours or so. Hispaniola will be in the middle of a NE-to-SW oriented trough that will be cutting across Puerto Rico, and a ridge that will be on top of Cuba and the Bahamas. An anticyclonic circulation center will develop near SE Cuba at 12 hours to 18 hours into the 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic circulation center will move to the northern coastal waters of Hispaniola by 18 hours. The anticyclonic circulation center will dissipate, and open into a ridge across the Mona Passage at the end of day one. Expect NW and W wind across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to- Cuba ridge. Day two will consist of E and SE wind flow, and then broad anticyclonic wind flow right at the end. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE wind flow for about the first 12 hours or so, followed by broad anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time. Day two will consist of an inverted trough across Hispaniola. Expect broad cyclonic wind flow with the trough. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N36W to 27N36W, to 22N44W 20N52W and 17N60W. A cold front passes through 32N31W to 27N40W. The cold front is dissipating from 27N40W to 24N47W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 30N northward between 30W and 36W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 25N northward between 30W and 42W. An upper level trough passes through 32N17W to 20N40W 16N56W. This trough is weakening with time. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N northward from 20W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 34N50W, through 32N55W, to 28N65W 25N72W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 21N87W at the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT