000 AXNT20 KNHC 011729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight, and early morning hours, starting this evening through Saturday night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S30W to the coast of South America at 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large area within 300 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 mb high over the central Atlantic is producing ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt SE winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over the Straits of Florida. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. A cold front is inland over SE Texas approaching the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Most of the Gulf has SW upper level flow. Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf States, while strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect the cold front to reach the Texas coast this evening with convection, and 25 kt northerly winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale to near gale winds are pulsing along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over N Venezuela, Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now advecting over Central America from the Caribbean. In the upper levels, ridging is over the W Caribbean W of 70W, while the base of an upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America. Expect clusters of scattered showers to continue to move W over the Caribbean, within the tradewind flow, during the next 24-48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N56W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 24N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N17W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hour for the cold front to move E to 31N31W with showers. Also expect another cold front to enter the W Atlantic on Thursday evening with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa