000 AXNT20 KNHC 010602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10N to 12N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to the Equator along 23W, to 02S30W, to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 02N southward between 02W and 05W, and from 03N southward from 45W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N southward from 41W eastward, and from 10N southward between 41W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1033 mb high pressure center that is near 36N59W, through 32N70W to 28N78W, across Florida to 26N87W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N92W and 21N97W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KVAF, KHQI, KEIR, and KGRY. MVFR: KVBS, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KEHC, KGHB, KSPR, KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in the deep south. IFR/MVFR in the middle coastal plains. MVFR/IFR from the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, including to the upper Texas Gulf coastal plains. LOUISIANA: IFR mostly/some MVFR, and a bit of LIFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from the line Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward to the just to the north of the coastal plains. LIFR/IFR/MVFR in the coastal plains. ALABAMA: MVFR/IFR . FLORIDA: IFR mostly, with some LIFR, from Cross City northwestward. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough starts near 12N61W, and it continues to 11N64W, and 10N69W and 10N75W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery elsewhere across the area. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, primarily from 76W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.24 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Northerly wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. E-to-NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plato: VFR. earlier ceiling at 1800 feet has been broken up. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area for the first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough will move across the area after the first 36 hours or so. Expect SE wind flow after the first 36 hours or so. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow, around a ridge, will move across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across the area during the first 36 hours. A trough will move across Hispaniola at 36 hours. Expect Northerly wind flow after the first 36 hours or so. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N26W to 23N34W and 16N54W. A cold front passes through 32N37W to 28N50W 26N61W and 26N70W. A surface trough continues is along 26N71W, across the Bahamas, to 22N78W. A second surface trough is along 31N39W 26N44W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north- west of the line that passes through 32N35W, 22N50W, to 20N70W. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward, and the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 34N27W, to 29N34W and 25N41W. A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure center that is near 36N59W, through 32N70W to 28N78W, across Florida to 26N87W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N92W and 21N97W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT