000 AXNT20 KNHC 282259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Winds have increased to near gale this afternoon across the central Caribbean as high pressure builds near Bermuda. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight, and early morning hours, starting this evening through Wednesday night and possibly through Saturday night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 00N17W. The ITCZ continues from 00N17W south of the equator to the coast of South America. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large area within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging from a 1034 mb high centered over the Atlantic near Bermuda is inducing 10 to 20 kt SE to S winds across the whole Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection or even showers are present over the Gulf today, as it is overlain by subsident ridging aloft. A new cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday afternoon and quickly spread from near Tampa southwestward to Tampico by Thursday afternoon. Gale conditions are not expected in associaton with this front at this time. CARIBBEAN SEA... No deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean and associated land masses as a subsident ridge is present in the upper troposphere as seen in the water vapor imagery. Winds have increased to near gale this afternoon across the central Caribbean as high pressure builds near Bermuda. A 1514 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass showed 30 kt just northwest of Colombia. See Special Features section above for more details. Elsewhere across the Caribbean NE to E tradewinds of 15-25 kt are occurring. Scattered showers are present in the southern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and along the upslope terrain of Central America. In general, winds across the Caribbean will be enhanced during the next couple of days, with strongest conditions northwest of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Widely scattered showers have been present over Hispaniola today, though these have not likely cuased any significant rainfall. Expect little change over the next two days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N43W west-southwestward to 27N58W where it becomes a stationary front to 26N71W. Additionally, a prefrontal trough extends from 31N40W to 26N46W. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of both boundaries. Winds are 20 kt or less in association with these features. A strong 1034 mb high centered north of our area at 36N61W is inducing a moderate north-south pressure gradient equatorward of the high. NE to E tradewinds of 20 to 25 kt are present in the Atlantic south of 22N between 66W and 74W including the Atlantic approach to the Caribbean passages. The cold front will continue eastward and a secondary push of cool air will enhance the front and cause the NE winds to reach around 25 kt on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect the scattered showers to continue. A vigorous cold front will reach the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia by Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea