000 AXNT20 KNHC 270539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient is expected support gale-force winds during the late night and early morning hours off the coast of Colombia over the next several nights. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N18W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 19W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within southwesterly flow over the basin. At the surface...ridging remains in control across the basin and eastern CONUS as a 1025 mb high is anchored near 36N77W. Mostly moderate to occasional fresh easterly winds prevail within the southern periphery of the high extending across the Gulf basin. The ridge is forecast to slide eastward into the mid-Atlantic waters through the next 24 hours as southerly return flow persists across the Gulf until early Wednesday. By that time, the next cold front is forecast to emerge of the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a new round of fresh to occasional strong N-NE winds in wake of the front as it sweeps southeast and stalls across central portion of the basin by Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin as water vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall subsident environment. A surface trough was analyzed across the northwest Caribbean from 20N83W to 17N85W. Isolated low-topped showers are within 120 nm either side of the boundary and forecast to drift westward toward the Yucatan peninsula today. Farther east, quick moving isolated showers are possible through the overnight hours mainly east of 71W. Aside from the Special Features near-gale to gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia each night, moderate to fresh trades will persist today and gradually increase to fresh to strong breeze levels by Tuesday as high pressure anchors itself to the north across the southwest Atlantic. The strengthened pressure gradient across the basin will remain in place through the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently fair conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across the island. Water vapor imagery also indicates very dry air and overall strong subsidence over the region. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery shows a middle to upper-level shortwave troughing moving over the Canadian Maritimes that supports a cold front entering the discussion area near 31N70W to 29N74W then becoming stationary through the Florida Straits to 24N82W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N64W to 27N67W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered west of the Azores near 38N35W. Within the southern periphery of the ridge, a weak 1025 mb low is centered near 32N41W with a cold front extending from the low to 29N44W then a stationary front to 29N48W. Isolated showers are occurring north of 28N between 36W-47W and is forecast to dissipate during the next 12 to 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA