000 AXNT20 KNHC 262311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize beginning Monday night during the late night and early morning hours off the coast of Colombia the next several nights. Near gale to gale force E-NE winds are expected as high pressure anchors itself to the N across the SW North Atlc waters for much of the week ahead. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 09N17W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N20W to 01N23W to 01N35W to the Equator near 37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between the Prime Meridian and 10W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 10W-19W...and S of 03N between 27W-41W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N between 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within southwesterly flow over the Gulf basin this evening. At the surface...ridging remains in control across the basin and eastern CONUS as a 1024 mb high is anchored across eastern Tennessee near 36N84W. Mostly moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds prevail within the southern periphery of the high as clear skies are noted on visible satellite imagery. The ridging is forecast to slide eastward into the offshore waters of the mid-Atlc coast through Monday as southerly return flow persists across the Gulf until early Wednesday. By Wednesday morning...the next cold front is forecast to emerge of the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a new round of fresh to occasional strong N-NE winds in wake of the front as it sweeps E-SE and stalls across central portions Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin this evening as water vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall subsident environment. One area of interest is a surface trough analyzed across the NW Caribbean from central Honduras near 15N86W to 20N83W. This troughing is providing focus for isolated low- topped showers within 120 nm either side of the boundary and forecast to drift westward toward the Yucatan peninsula by Monday. Farther east...quick moving isolated showers are possible through the overnight hours into Monday E of 70W. Otherwise...aside from the Special Features near gale to gale force winds expected off the coast of Colombia each night...moderate to fresh trades are expected to persist through Monday and gradually increase to fresh to strong breeze levels by Tuesday as high pressure anchors itself to the N across the SW North Atlc region. The strengthened pressure gradient across the basin is expected to remain in place through next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently fair conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across the island this evening. Water vapor imagery also indicates very dry air and overall strong subsidence over the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery shows middle to upper level shortwave troughing moving over the Canadian Maritimes that supports a cold front entering the discussion area near 32N71W and extending SW to 28N77W then becoming stationary through the Florida Straits to 24N82W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the front. To the E...a weak surface trough extends from 29N66W to 25N71W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered W-SW of the Azores near 38N36W. Within the southern periphery of the ridging...a weak 1024 mb low is centered near 33N40W with a cold front extending from the low to 30N41W to 28N46W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 28N between 36W-47W and is forecast to dissipate during the next 12 to 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN