000 AXNT20 KNHC 260531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal area of Africa near 09N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02S50W. Isolated showers prevail within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a cold front from 29N83W to 25N90W then as a dissipating stationary front from that point to 23N96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds north of the fronts while light to gentle southerly winds prevail south of the front. A surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to 19N92W. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the cold front across the northern half of the basin. The cold front is expected to move SE through the Gulf overnight as the high pressure continues building eastward across the southern U.S. Return southeasterly flow begins over the Gulf W of 90W by Sunday afternoon and spreads over most of the Gulf through early Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp mid-to-upper level trough passes through the eastern Cuba and into the SW corner of the basin. At the surface, a trough was analyzed from 19N81W to 17N84W with isolated showers. Very strong subsidence was noted in the wake of the trough and elsewhere over the basin east of 80W. A weak surface ridge extended from 20N60W through the northern Leeward Islands to 15N75W. This ridge maintained sub-normal trade winds over the basin, generally around 10 kt. The trade winds should begin to increase on Sunday as high pressure builds north of the area, with strong winds likely within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia on Sunday night into Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery indicated very dry air/strong subsidence over the entire island. Little change in the overall conditions is anticipated through the remainder of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough extends through 32N66W to the SE Bahamas, through eastern Cuba, then into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. This trough is providing limited support to a pair of surface troughs that extend from 31N65W to 27N68W and from 31N62W to 28N63W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N40W to 24N54W. No significant convection is observed at this time with these features. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of surface highs centered near 37N44W and 33N24W. Expect for the troughs and front to continue weakening through the next 24 hours. A new cold front will enter the west Atlantic today enhancing winds/seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA