000 AXNT20 KNHC 251802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, curving to the Equator along 23W, 01N35W and 01N38W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N13W 05N23W0 05N52W southward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough is moving into the eastern half of the Midwest. The trough is supporting a cold front that is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the Mexico coastal plains near 22N98W. Scattered to broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 23N northward from 90W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the area. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Naples. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through the Windward Passage, into the SW corner of the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the area. A surface ridge passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, through 16N64W, to 15N76W, and central Guatemala. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery elsewhere across the area. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, from 14N northward between 70W and 76W, and from 18N to 19N between 80W and 86W, in areas of broken low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: a TRACE in Freeport in the Bahamas. ...HISPANIOLA... SW wind flow from 250 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will continue for the next 6 to 12 hours or so, as the trough stays to the west of Hispaniola. Expect NW wind flow after the trough moves to the east of Hispaniola, and continues moving eastward more and more. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will continue for the next 18 hours or so. The trough will move on top of Hispaniola, and then it will dissipated. A ridge will build across Hispaniola at the beginning of day two, from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Expect NE wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SW wind flow at the start, followed by variable winds for 6 hours, and then anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge, for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front passes across Bermuda to 24N65W. A surface trough is along 31N68W to 27N70W and 25N72W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N to 30N between 62W and 63W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 60W and the SE coast of the U.S.A. An upper level trough is passing through 32N30W 25N35W to 18N45W. A stationary front continues, through 32N37W to 29N41W 26N47W and 22N56W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N30W to 23N50W and 20N64W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from 30W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 33N26W, to 26N40W, 21N48W, to 16N64W in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea. A second surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 37N43W, through 32N49W, to 25N58W, also toward 16N64W in the eastern part of the For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT