000 AXNT20 KNHC 250004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb surface low near 31N75W is moving NE at 15 kt while occluding. A cold front extends well E of the low from 31N71W to 26N68W to 20N72W. Gale force southeast winds are occurring N of 29N between 67W and 69W with seas of 12 to 15 FT, while strong to cyclonic flow is observed elsewhere N of 24N within 180 nm E of the front. The low will lift N of 32N tonight with winds dropping below gale force by then. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends SSW from the from the African coast near 06N11W to 02N16W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues SW to 01N25W to the equator at 39W and the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 14W and 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough has emerged off the Texas coast with winds shifting to the NE at 10 kt. Light and variable winds prevail over the Gulf east of this trough with scattered to locally broken low clouds over the Gulf N of 27N. A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast and overtake the surface trough later tonight with fresh to strong N to NE winds developing across the NW Gulf in the wake of the front. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the northern Bay of Campeche by Sat morning and pass through the Straits of Florida on Sun afternoon with SE return flow developing over the Gulf W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of the gale center in the southwest North Atlantic has disrupted the normal trade wind regime in the basin. Winds are generally light and variable across most of the basin with wave heights around 2 to 3 FT. As high pressure builds to the N of the area by late in the weekend, moderate to fresh, locally strong trade winds are expected to resume. Strongest winds are expected within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia beginning Sun night. ...HISPANIOLA... The southern extent of a cold front reaches the N coast of Haiti with broken to overcast low and mid clouds and isolated thunderstorms over northern portions of the Dominican Republic. The front will move east and weaken through Sat, however low level southwesterly flow suggests with afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain likely over the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 mb surface low near 31N75W is moving NE at 15 kt while occluding. A cold front extends well E of the low from 31N71W to 26N68W to 20N72W. See the Special Features section for gale force winds associated with this feature. A large area of overcast multi-layered clouds covers the area N of 25N between 60W and 70W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N within 180-240 NM east of the cold front. A 1027 mb high pressure centered near 37N58W dominated the area N of 25N between 48W and 65W. Further east, a stationary front extends from 32N37W to 21N62W with scattered showers observed within 120 NM of the front to the N of 25N. The remainder of the far eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge extending SW from a 1026 MB high centered near 34N25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb