000 AXNT20 KNHC 241729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...A 1004 mb surface low near 30N76W is progressing ne at around 20 kt while occluding. A cold front extends s to the Windward Passage, and a warm front extends 360 nm to the ese. Southeasterly gale force winds precede the warm front, while strong to near gale force cylonic flow is observed elsewhere across the subtropics between 63W and 71W. The low will lift n of 32N by this evening, with associated winds diminishing to 20 kt or less, and seas subsiding to less than 8 ft by early Sun morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends ssw from the from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N16W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues sw to 02N26W to beyond the equator at 36W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 75 nm either side of lines from 04N08W to 01N16W, and from 03N15W to 01N29W to 01N41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh return flow is noted across the gulf to the e of a cold front currently along the Texas coast with locally broken low clouds observed to the east of 90W. Strong ne flow will develop tonight and continue into early Sat across the nw waters behind the front which should extend from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight and pass through the Straits of Florida on Sun afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to near Belize and is preceded by a surface trough that extends s from east Cuba to central Nicaragua. These boundaries should merge into a single feature that will gradually dissipate over the nw Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm e of the surface trough, and within about 60 nm of the cold front. Similar activity is observed over the Leewards. The usual trade wind flow is disrupted at this time keeping winds generally light to moderate, but expected to resume to moderate e flow late in the weekend except becoming strong along the nw coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers will continue to stream n across the island through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section. A large area of overcast low and mid level clouds, with embedded showers and few tstms are occurring to the n of 23N between 64W and 74W. A stationary front extends sw from 32N37W to 20N64W with scattered showers observed within 120 nm of the front to the n of 25N. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge extending sw from a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 35W25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ NELSON