000 AXNT20 KNHC 241040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 540 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1004 mb centered across the SW North Atlc waters near 29N78W is producing near gale to gale force E-SE winds generally N of an occluded front extending from the low center to the triple point near 29N74W to 28N72W. From the triple point...a cold front extends S-SW to 25N72W to eastern Cuba near 20N75W to 17N80W in the western Caribbean Sea. A warm front also extends from the triple point to 22N66W. The gale force conditions are expected to persist through 25/0600 UTC as the system eventually tracks N of the discussion area by late Friday night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N17W to 01N20W to 02N24W to the Equator near 28W to 01N33W to the Equator near 39W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 10W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Much of the Gulf basin is under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge providing dry air and overall subsidence this morning. A weak surface ridge results with axis extending from central Georgia through a 1012 mb high near 29N87W to the northern Yucatan peninsula coast. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail E of 90W with a few isolated showers possible across the SE Gulf waters as the Special Features low pressure area continues to move NE across the SW North Atlc region. W of 90W...moderate to fresh S-SE winds are occurring as a developed area of low pressure moves across the mid-Mississippi River valley. The associated cold front with this low pressure system to the N is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night providing another round of fresh N-NE winds in its wake across the basin during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor over the Caribbean this morning supporting a cold front extending across eastern Cuba from 20N75W SW to 17N80W. A pre-frontal surface trough also extends from across western Hispaniola near 20N72W to 16N76W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm E of the surface trough boundary. Isolated showers are also occurring N of 18N in association with the cold front and southwestern periphery of the Special Features low pressure system centered across the SW North Atlc region. With the frontal system across the north-central portion of the basin...the usual trade wind flow is disrupted at this time keeping winds generally light to moderate. Within mostly E-SE winds E of the surface trough boundary...isolated showers are occurring across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico mainly NE of a line from 14N61W to the Mona Passage near 18N67W. The cold front is expected to drift eastward and move N of the region by late Friday night with a more normal trade wind synoptic pattern expected across the basin by Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers across the island continue as a surface trough extends across the Turks and Caicos islands near 21N71W to 16N76W across western portions of the island. A cold front still remains to the W across eastern Cuba and will gradually slide eastward and lift NE of the Windward Passage region during the day Friday and Friday night. Conditions are expected to improve by Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Special Features occluded low pressure area continues to influence much of the SW North Atlc waters W of 65W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring generally N of 23N between 62W-72W...and N of 30N between 72W-76W. Aside from the near gale to gale force winds occurring to the N and NE of the occlusion...fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring E of the cold front extending from 28N72W to 22N73W to eastern Cuba near 20N75W. The low is expected to move NE of the discussion area by Saturday. To the E...another cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N39W to 27N45W becoming stationary to 21N56W to 21N63W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 25N within 120 nm E of the front...with isolated showers occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered S-SE of the Azores near 35W26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN