000 AXNT20 KNHC 240538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1002 mb centered across the SW North Atlc waters near 28N78W is producing near gale to gale force E-SE winds generally N of an occluded front extending from the low center to the triple point near 29N74W. From the triple point...a cold front extends S-SW to 26N73W to eastern Cuba near 20N76W to 15N81W in the western Caribbean Sea. A warm front also extends from the triple point to 27N70W. The gale force conditions are expected to persist through 24/1800 UTC as the system eventually tracks N of the discussion area by Friday night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 02N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N16W to the Equator near 30W and along the Equator to 40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 19W-26W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 03N between 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Much of the Gulf basin is under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge providing dry air and subsidence this evening. A weak surface ridge results with axis across the central Gulf along 90W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail with a few isolated showers possible E of 90W as the Special Features low pressure area continues to move eastward across the SW North Atlc region. W of 90W...moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring as a developed area of low pressure moves across the mid-Mississippi River valley. The associated cold front with this low pressure system to the N is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night providing another round of fresh N-NE winds in its wake across the basin during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor over the Caribbean this evening supporting a cold front extending across eastern Cuba from 20N76W SW to 15N81W. A pre-frontal surface trough also extends from across western Hispaniola near 20N73W to 13N78W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of a line from 20N72W to 13N80W. Isolated showers are also occurring N of 17N in association with the cold front and southwestern periphery of the Special Features low pressure system centered across the SW North Atlc region. With the frontal system across the north-central portion of the basin...the usual trade wind flow is disrupted for the time being keeping winds generally light to moderate. Within mostly E-SE winds E of the surface trough boundary...isolated showers are occurring across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico mainly NE of a line from 13N61W to the Mona Passage near 18N67W. The cold front is expected to drift eastward and move N of the region by Friday night late with a more normal trade wind synoptic pattern expected across the basin by Saturday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are expected to continue as a surface trough extends across the Turks and Caicos islands near 22N72W to 13N78W across western portions of the island. Widely scattered showers are occurring within 180 nm E of the boundary...and this includes the northern and southern adjacent coastal waters. A cold front still remains to the W across eastern Cuba and will gradually slide eastward and lift NE of the Windward Passage region during the day Friday and Friday night. Conditions are expected to improve by Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Special Features occluded low pressure area continues to influence much of the SW North Atlc waters W of 65W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring generally N of 23N between 64W-76W. Aside from the near gale to gale force winds occurring to the NE of the occlusion...fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring E of the cold front extending from 28N74W to 26N73W to eastern Cuba near 20N77W. The low is expected to move NE of the discussion area by Saturday. To the E...another cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N40W to 24N48W becoming stationary to 20N60W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 26N within 90 nm E of the front...with isolated showers occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 37W25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN