000 AXNT20 KNHC 232357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale: As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with 1001 mb central pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of Cape Canaveral. A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated gale force winds were occurring east of the center. These gale force conditions are expected to continue until 25/1800 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N12W to 02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N19W to the equator near 40W. Widely scattered moderate convection exists within 120 nm of the axis between 20W and 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is inducing weak northerly winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Weak southeasterly return flow has set up in the northwestern Gulf, ahead of a cold front expected to reach the Gulf late Friday night. No significant showers or deep convection is occurring over the Gulf today. As little moisture advection is likely to occur in the return flow, limited showers are to be expected as the front reaches the northwestern Gulf late Friday night and stretches from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico by Saturday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... As 2100 UTC, a cold front from the broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section reaches from eastern Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough extends from the Windward Passage to the southwestern Caribbean. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the trough axis. Winds behind the front are weak westerly with 15-20 kt south to southwesterlies along the trough line. The remainder of the Caribbean has weak southeast to east tradewinds. The prefrontal trough and cold front should push eastward only to near Hispaniola on Friday before slow dissipating on Saturday. Continued scattered showers are expected within 60 nm of the trough axis through Saturday. Winds across the Caribbean should be 5-15 kt by Friday through Saturday. ...Hispaniola... Southerly winds east of the Caribbean prefrontal trough are causing numerous showers over Haiti and scattered showers over southwestern Dominican Republic. As the trough and the approaching cold front are expected to move only slowly eastward, continued scattered to numerous showers are expected over Hispaniola through late Friday before beginning to diminish on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with 1001 mb central pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of Cape Canaveral. A warm front extends east of the center to 27N72W and a cold front extends south of the center. A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated gale force winds were occurring east of the center. A prefrontal trough extends from 25N72W to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection and numerous showers extend from the warm front northward to our border at 32N as well as within 60 nm of the prefrontal trough. The low - at quite a low latitude for an extratropical cyclone - is in the process of occluding. The low will move slowly northeastward during the occlusion process with winds only gradually diminishing. Continued scattered convection and numerous showers are expected to occur in association with the warm frontal boundary and prefrontal trough through Saturday. Elsewhere a cold front enters the area at 32N43W, extends southwestward to 23N50W, becomes a stationary front, and extends to 18N65W near the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection and showers are located within 60 nm of the cold front and scattered showers are located within 60 nm of the stationary front. 20 to 25 kt S winds are located east of the cold front. The cold front should only progress eastward through Friday morning before becoming stationary and gradually dissipating by Saturday. The moderate southerly winds and convection/showers should diminish on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea