000 AXNT20 KNHC 231713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1213 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1001 mb centered across the central Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral is producing near gale to gale force SE winds generally between 90 nm and 240 nm in the northeast quadrant. These gale force conditions are expected to persist off the coast of Florida in the SW North Atlc waters through 25/1200 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 02N17W to the equator near 40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 12W and 17W, from 01N to 04N between 20W and 24W, and also from 01N to 03N between 27W and 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis along 80W and a vigorous mid-level low and associated energy centered over the southern Florida peninsula. An associated cold front extends from the 1001 mb low near 29N81W to central Cuba near 22N78W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. While most of the precipitation is occurring across the Florida Straits and across eastern portions of the Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlantic waters, a few lingering isolated showers are occurring east of 86W within the western periphery of the low. Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is under the influence a weak pressure pattern. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the western Gulf this morning and are expected to become more southerly by tonight into Friday as low pressure develops across the central CONUS. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean remains under the influence of dry and relatively stable west-northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level low and associated energy remains across the Florida peninsula and Florida Straits this morning supporting a cold front extending across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters from 21.5N79W to 18N85W. A pre-frontal surface trough is also analyzed from eastern Cuba near 20N76W to near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are noted within 120 to 180 nm east of the surface trough, while isolated showers are possible N of 17N E of 86W in association with the cold front. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are occurring in wake of the front which are expected to weaken gradually through the rest of today as the cold front progresses eastward as dissipates across the north-central waters tonight into Friday. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front remains analyzed across the Leeward Islands to the adjacent southern coastal waters of Puerto Rico with isolated showers occurring N of 17N E of 68W. The remainder of the basin is under mostly fair skies and relatively tranquil conditions as the overall trade wind flow is disrupted with the presence of the frontal systems impacting the basin. A more normal trade wind synoptic pattern is expected by Saturday night into Sunday. ...Hispaniola... Isolated showers are expected to continue as an approaching pre- frontal surface trough and cold front increase cloudiness and probability of convective precipitation through the rest of today. The front will reach the Windward Passage by tonight and gradually weaken as the low pressure system associated with the front moves N-NE Friday into Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida peninsula that stretches influence eastward across the much of the SW North Atlc W of 70W. In addition to the area of near gale to gale force winds occurring with the low as it tracks eastward, scattered to numerous showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring across a large area N of 20W W of 70W. The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the discussion area by Saturday. Farther east, a middle to upper level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 41N46W that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N44W extending SW to 23N51W, continuing as a stationary front to 18N65W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 180 to 240 nm east of the front, as well as within 420 nm southeast of a line from 20N48W to 11N60W. Finally, the remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered S of the Azores near 38W26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Huffman/Lewitsky