000 AXNT20 KNHC 231059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 559 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1001 mb centered across the central Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral is producing near gale to gale force SE winds generally N of 27N W of 75W. These gale force conditions are expected to persist off the coast of Florida in the SW North Atlc waters through 25/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 03N17W to 01N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N20W to the Equator near 30W and along the Equator to 40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 08W-14W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 15W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis along 80W and a vigorous mid-level low and associated energy centered over the southern Florida peninsula this morning. The associated cold front extends from the 1001 mb low near 28N81W to central Cuba near 22N79W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. While most of the precipitation is occurring across the Florida Straits and across eastern portions of the Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlc waters...a few lingering isolated showers are occurring E of 89W within the western periphery of the low. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin generally W of 90W is under the influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1014 mb high centered across the SW Gulf near 19N94W and another weak high pressure center at 1011 mb near 28N93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the western Gulf this morning and are expected to become more southerly by Thursday night into Friday as low pressure develops across the central CONUS. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean remains under the influence of dry and relatively stable west-northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level low and associated energy remains across the Florida peninsula and Florida Straits this morning supporting a cold front extending across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters from 22N79W to 19N81W to 18N85W. A pre-frontal surface trough is also analyzed from central Cuba near the cold front to offshore of NE Nicaragua near 14N82W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are noted within 180 nm E of the surface trough while isolated showers are possible N of 17N E of 86W in association with the cold front. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are occurring in wake of the front which are expected to weaken gradually through Thursday as the front progresses eastward as dissipates across the north-central waters Thursday night into Friday. Farther east...a stationary front remains analyzed across the Leeward Islands to the adjacent southern coastal waters of Puerto Rico with isolated showers occurring N of 16N E of 68W. The remainder of the basin is under mostly fair skies and relatively tranquil conditions as the overall trade wind flow is disrupted with the presence of the frontal systems impacting the basin. A more normal trade wind synoptic pattern is expected by Saturday night into Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are expected to continue as an approaching pre- frontal surface trough and cold front increase cloudiness and probability of convective precipitation through Thursday. The front will reach the Windward Passage by Thursday night and gradually weaken as the low pressure system associated with the front moves N-NE Friday into Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida peninsula that stretches influence eastward across the much of the SW North Atlc W of 70W this morning. In addition to the area of near gale to gale force winds occurring with the low as it tracks eastward...scattered to numerous showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring across a large area N of 24W W of 70W. The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the discussion area by Saturday. Farther east...a middle to upper level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 41N47W that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N44W extending SW to 23N52W becoming stationary to 18N63W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 180 nm E of the front and from 10N-22N between 40W-53W. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered S of the Azores near 37W27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN