000 AXNT20 KNHC 230545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 990 mb area of low pressure across the central North Atlc extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N45W. The front continues SW to 26N50W to 21N57W then stationary to 19N67W. Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring N of 28N within 180 nm E of the front. The gale force conditions are expected to move N of the area by 23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1002 mb centered across the southern Florida peninsula is producing near gale to gale force SE winds from 26N to 29N between 76W and 80W. These gale force conditions are expected to persist off the coast of Florida in the SW North Atlc waters through 25/0000 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N16W to 01N23W to the Equator near 35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between 03W-12W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 14W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis along 81W and a vigorous mid-level low and associated energy centered over the southern Florida peninsula this evening. The associated cold front extends from the 1002 mb low near 27N81W to western Cuba near 23N81W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. While most of the precipitation is occurring across the Florida Straits and across eastern portions of the Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlc waters...a few lingering isolated showers are occurring E of 87W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin generally W of 90W is under the influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1013 mb high centered across the SW Gulf near 20N93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the western Gulf this evening and are expected to become more southerly by Thursday night into Friday as low pressure develops across the central CONUS. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the Caribbean remains under the influence of dry and relatively stable west-northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level low and associated energy remains across the Florida peninsula and Florida Straits this evening supporting a cold front extending across western Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters from 22N81W to 19N85W. A pre-frontal surface trough is also analyzed from central Cuba near 22N78W to northern Nicaragua near 14N85W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are noted within 180 nm E of the surface trough while isolated showers are possible N of 18N W of 80W in association with the cold front. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are occurring in wake of the front which are expected to weaken gradually through Thursday as the front progresses eastward as dissipates across the central waters Thursday night into Friday. Farther east...a stationary front remains analyzed N of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico tonight with isolated showers occurring N of 16N E of 66W. The remainder of the basin is under mostly fair skies and relatively tranquil conditions as the overall trade wind flow is disrupted with the presence of the frontal systems in the vicinity. A more normal trade wind synoptic pattern is expected by Saturday night into Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are expected an approaching pre-frontal surface trough and cold front increase cloudiness and probability of convective precipitation through Thursday. The front will reach the Windward Passage by Thursday night and gradually weaken as the low pressure system associated with the front moves N-NE Friday into Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico that stretches influence eastward across the much of the SW North Atlc W of 70W this evening. In addition to the developing area of near gale to gale force winds expected with the low as it tracks eastward... scattered to numerous showers and isolated tstms are occurring across a large area N of 77W W of 70W. The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the discussion area by Saturday. Farther east...a middle to upper level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 40N50W that supports the Special Features 990 mb low centered near 36N52W and the associated cold front producing the near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring E of the front and E of a surface trough from 23N51W to 13N57W. The convection remains generally N of 13N between 38W-53W. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered S of the Azores near 37W29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN