000 AXNT20 KNHC 222337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a cold front entering our area near 32N48W and extending southwestward to 18N63W. S to SW gale-force winds are located north of 27N east of the front to 44W. The gale conditions are expected to diminish in our area by 23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N16W to 00N44W to the South American coast near 01S47W. Widely scattered moderate convection exists from 01N-06N between 05W- 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a 1003 mb low is centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. A cold front extends south- southeastward from the low to the Florida Keys and western Cuba. As observed by the WSR-88D radar network, numerous showers are occurring in the Gulf of Mexico east of 85W, most of the Florida peninsula, the Florida Straits, and central Cuba. However, there is almost no lightning flashes associated with this extensive area of showers and cloud top temperatures are generally -40C or warmer. Scattered showers exist elsewhere east of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds behind the front across early the entire Gulf are rather weak - generally northwest at 20 kt or less. The surface low and front are supported by a collocated upper-level low, as seen in the water vapor imagery. Showers should subside over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula on Thursday and winds remain weak for the next couple of days. The winds in the western Gulf will switch to southerly late Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold front to reach the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough extends from central Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm of the trough, as seen in the Cuban and Grand Cayman radars. South to southwesterly winds ahead of the front are 15 to 20 kt. West to northwest winds behind the front are 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, winds are very light - 15 kt or less. The front should push slowly eastward and its associated winds will diminish along the front by Friday morning. Scattered showers should continue to occur in association with the front over the central Caribbean, Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola through Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... A weak convergence line extends from the central Caribbean across the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, which is causing some scattered showers over Haiti. As the prefrontal trough and front approach Hispaniola, showers could be enhanced on Thursday and Friday in both Haiti and Dominican Republic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a cold front entering our area near 32N48W and extending southwestward to 18N63W. See special feature above regarding gale conditions. 20 to 25 kt W winds behind the front extend down to about 25N west of the front to 60W. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough extends from 22N51W to 13N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located within 120 nm of the front north of 22N and within 180 nm east of the trough. Farther west, SE winds of 20 to 25 kt are occurring north of 23N west of 78W to the Florida coast in the flow ahead of a surface low/cold front. Numerous showers are occurring in the same vicinity, including the Florida peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas. The 985 mb low will quickly move northeastward during the next two days and winds greater than 20 kt will be north of our area by Thursday night. The cold front should not progress much more to the south or the east, and should gradually fade by Friday. In the western Atlantic, a frontal low should move off of the Florida coast and E to SE winds should reach gale ahead of the by Thursday afternoon. An associated cold front should extend from the low to eastern Cuba. The low and front should move slowly eastward by Friday afternoon with gale force winds ahead of the front. Continued scattered to numerous showers should occur within 120 nm of the front through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea