000 AXNT20 KNHC 220539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 998 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N53W. The front continues SW to 24N60W. Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring N of 27N E of the front to 52W. The gale force conditions are expected to move N of the area by 23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N18W to 01N26W to 01N34W to the Equator near 41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-26W...and from 04N-07N between 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over the lower Mississippi River valley and north-central Gulf waters with the associated trough axis dipping southward over the south-central Gulf waters to a base near 23N89W. The troughing supports a broad area of surface low pressure focused on a 1009 mb low centered across central Mississippi near 32N90W with an occlusion extending to a triple point near 32N86W then a cold front extending S-SW to 30N85W to 22N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of 25N between 81W-87W largely enhanced by strong middle to upper level diffluence. Otherwise...the western half of the basin is under the influence of gentle to fresh NW winds and surface ridging anchored across interior portions of Mexico with mostly clear skies prevailing W of 90W. Looking ahead...the cold front is forecast to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc waters by Thursday morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast by Friday night into early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil conditions this evening with the exception of the eastern waters. An area of low pressure NE of the Leeward Islands centered near 19N60W extends a weak cold front to 15N61W to 14N66W. Low-level moisture convergence within southerly winds focused along a surface trough analyzed from 16N58W to 12N63W is generating widely scattered showers from 12N-15N E of 62W. Otherwise...dry and stable air aloft coupled with gentle to moderate northerly winds are prevailing and expected to persist through Wednesday. By Wednesday...a cold front is expected to move across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach the Yucatan Channel region and NW Caribbean waters introducing another round of fresh to occasional strong W-NW winds. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are expected overnight as persistent N-NE winds will continue to feed Atlc moisture across northern portions of the island that will result in these showers through Wednesday afternoon. An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday will increase cloudiness and probability of convective precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 33N57W that supports the Special Features 998 mb low centered near 37N55W and the associated cold front producing the near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring E of the front N of 20N between 46W-54W. Farther south...a mid-level shortwave trough in the vicinity of 19N59W supports a weakening 1010 mb low centered NE of the Leeward Islands near 19N60W. The associated cold front extends SW across the central Lesser Antilles and into the south-central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 14N-21N between 54W-60W. To the west...across much of the SW North Atlc...weak surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high anchored off the New England coast near 41N69W maintains gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds as an area of low pressure continues to develop across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure moves eastward through Wednesday night into Thursday...SE winds are expected to increase W of 70W. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 41W24W. The ridge axis extends S-SW from the high to 32N31N to 14N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN