000 AXNT20 KNHC 201157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 01N24W, to the Equator along 29W, to 02N35W, crossing the Equator along 37W, to 02S40W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N11W 07N30W 06N42W 03N51W southward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between Africa and 60W, in areas of broken low level clouds. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough extends from Colorado/Kansas to Texas to north central Mexico. The trough is supporting a cold front that runs from north-to-south, from north central Texas to north central Mexico. Return SE wind flow spans the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in Texas from 27N to 31N between 96W and 99W, from the middle Texas coast northward. Other rainshowers cover the rest of the Texas from the border with Mexico northward between the coast and 100W. An upper level ridge is along 86W/87W. High level moisture is being pushed across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico with the anticyclonic wind flow around the ridge. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KIKT, and KDLP. MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KEIR, KVQT, KGHB, and KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR/MVFR and rainshowers with thunder at times, from the deep South of Texas, northward. LOUISIANA: LIFR around Lake Pontchartrain. MVFR/IFR from Baton Rouge southwestward to the coast. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR from Natchez to Hattiesburg southward. ALABAMA: LIFR between Florida and Mississippi. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: LIFR at the NAS in Pensacola, in Apalachicola, in Cross City, and in Brooksville. IFR in Perry and MacDill AFB. MVFR in Sarasota. LIFR in Punta Gorda. MVFR/IFR in the Ft.Myers metropolitan area. MVFR in Marathon Key. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS... The middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in Virginia 24 hours ago, has moved into the western Atlantic Ocean, near 29N70W. Cyclonic wind flow is sweeping across the western Atlantic Ocean, Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, with this cyclonic center and an accompanying trough. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 30N72W, curving to 27N71W, the NW Bahamas and SE Florida near 25N80W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N northward between 62W and 70W. Rainshowers are possible also from 22N to 25N between 70W and 80W, across the Bahamas. ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a central Atlantic Ocean trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward between 30W and 50W. A stationary front is along 32N41W 22N50W 19N60W, across the NE Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico, and the SE coastal sections of the Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving from the Yucatan Peninsula, across the Greater Antilles, and into the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 74W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery elsewhere across the area. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, and between 70W and 84W, in areas of broken low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. NW wind flow is present also from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow, will move across the area during the next 48 hours, first with a trough and after the trough, and then being on the eastern side of a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with SW wind flow, with an anticyclonic circulation center that will be along to the south of Hispaniola. A trough will follow right away, bringing NW wind flow to Hispaniola, for the rest of day one. The first half of day two will consist of more NW wind flow, with the trough. The second half of day two will consist of N wind flow, as an anticyclonic circulation center moves from Cuba to Haiti. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of NW wind flow, being on the northern side of an east-to-west oriented Caribbean Sea ridge. The first half of day two will consist of N wind flow, with a trough to the east of Hispaniola and a ridge to the west of Hispaniola. The rest of day two will consist of NE wind flow, as the ridge moves closer to Hispaniola. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 25W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland near the Morocco coast near 32N09W. A surface ridge passes through 32N29W, to 28N32W, 22N34W, to 14N40W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 32N52W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, and to the east of the western Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT