000 AXNT20 KNHC 182339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02S30W to the South American Coast near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 10W-23W, and from 02S-02N between 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A small 1011 mb low is centered near Mobile Alabama at 30N88W. Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas at 27N68W producing 5-10 kt southerly return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over NW Alabama near 34N88W. A trough axis extends S to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N91W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is producing bands of scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf and central Florida from 25N-29N between 81W-86W. Expect in 24 hours for the surface low to dissipate. Also expect a 1020 mb high to develop over the Florida Panhandle with 10-15 anticyclonic surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... over the next 24 hours for prefrontal showers to be over the Island. The tail-end of a dissipating cold front is over the Windward Passage producing scattered showers N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over E Venezuela, Trinidad, W Panama, Costa Rica, and E Cuba. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and over the NW Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over the central Caribbean Sea near 14N75W. Upper level moisture is over the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, and W Cuba. Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are now over Hispaniola. Expect showers to persist over E Hispaniola over the next 24 hours for prefrontal showers to be over the Island. for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas at 27N68W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to 24N53W to 20N63W. A dissipating cold front continues to the Windward Passage at 18N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of front N of 26N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A 1033 mb high is centered over the Azores near 39N25W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 40W-60W supporting the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N42W to 23N50W to 20N60W with convection and showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa