000 AXNT20 KNHC 181153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 03N, to 05N14W, to the Equator at 24W. The The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 24W, to 03S24W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward between 11W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward between 17W and South America. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... The middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center and trough from West Texas to Mexico 24 hours ago, now pass through Oklahoma and Texas, to Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward. Upper level SW wind flow is present elsewhere. A middle level-to-upper level ridge is along 76W/77W. A surface trough is along 29N88W 28N92W 28N95W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 26N northward between Florida and 90W. Upper level high clouds are curving anticyclonically, from the SW corner of the area, across and beyond the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG and KBBF. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in the Deep South of Texas. a lot of LIFR/some IFR from the middle Texas Gulf coast, to Galveston and Jasper, to the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, and to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR/some IFR, from Baton Rouge southward. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR/some IFR from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward. some areas have cleared from the IFR conditions recently. ALABAMA: light rain from Evergreen to Dothan. Florida: light rain from Apalachicola northwestward into the Florida Panhandle. MVFR in Perry, in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area, and Sarasota. ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 50W westward. A deep layer trough is along 55W/56W from 23N northward. A cold front passes through 32N48W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 27N55W and 20N68W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 43W and 51W. widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 25N northward between 40W and 55W. rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of 25N55W 20N68W, and elsewhere to the NW of the cold front. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner, across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery elsewhere across the area. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of broken low level clouds, primarily from 17N southward from 66W eastward, and elsewhere from 70W westward. The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 18/0000 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: only a TRACE in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. NE wind flow is present from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be in the Windward Passage at the beginning of the 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic center will move on top of Hispaniola after the first 12 hours, and it will spread anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the rest of day one. The anticyclonic circulation center eventually will move into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea by the end of the 48-hour forecast period. SW wind flow will move across the area during most of day two. Expect NW-to-W wind flow at the end of day two, with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one. expect northerly wind flow during day two. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 30N11W to the Canary Islands, to a 23N26W cyclonic circulation center, to 12N32W, and 05N39W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N northward between 26W and 60W. A surface ridge passes through 32N32W, to 27N38W, 22N46W, to 19N60W, to the coastal waters that are to the south of Hispaniola. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N75W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT