000 AXNT20 KNHC 171703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1203 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N56W SW to the SE Bahamas and across central Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring generally N of 30N within 120 nm E of the front. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 07N16W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N20W to the Equator near 25W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 11W-17W...and S of 02N between 26W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon on the eastern periphery of an approaching middle to upper level low centered over northern Texas and Oklahoma with the associated trough axis extending southward along 99W to over central Mexico. Global models suggest the trough will induce weak surface troughing or possible cyclogenesis across the northern Gulf waters this evening through Sunday until the area moves into the SW North Atlc region. This process is expected to happen within moderate to fresh S-SE winds across the western Gulf as surface ridging anchored currently by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N88W moves eastward during the next 24 hours. At a minimum... even if suggested surface pressure falls do not materialize during the weekend...increased mid-level lift and favorable diffluent upper level dynamics are generating scattered showers and tstms across the western and north-central Gulf waters currently N of 24N between 88W-96W that will likely continue through the overnight hours into Saturday across the northern Gulf and coastal plain region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level dry and stable west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean this afternoon providing for mainly tranquil conditions at the surface. While skies remain mostly clear...the main feature impacting the basin is a weakening cold front extending across central Cuba and the NW Caribbean along 20N/21N producing isolated showers and possible tstms remaining generally N of 20N between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are forecast to prevail and persist through Saturday. A localized strong pressure gradient will establish itself off the coast of Colombia by Friday night increasing winds in this region into fresh to strong levels through early Monday as strong high pressure is anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies persist this afternoon across the island as upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail. A cold front currently analyzed to the N along 22N will continue sagging southward and impact the island with increased cloudiness and possible isolated showers late Friday night into Saturday. The front is expected to continue weakening and become diffuse across the region on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle to upper level low is centered over the Canadian Maritimes providing troughing to much of the western North Atlc. This troughing supports a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N58W SW to the SE Bahamas and across central Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea. Aside from the near gale to gale force conditions described above in the Special Features section... scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N within 300 nm E of the front. In addition...scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front W of 63W. To the west...a secondary cold front extends from 32N62W to 30N69W. W of the primary cold front...mainly moderate to fresh NW wind prevail to 70W as ridging builds in W of 70W anchored by a 1020 mb high centered across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 37N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN