000 AXNT20 KNHC 162351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas to W Cuba near 23N80W to the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. Gale force SW winds are N of 29N within 300 nm E of the front with seas 10-17 ft. The gale is forecast to end in 24 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 00N22W. The ITCZ extends from 00N22W to 02S30W to 01S40W to the South American Coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 06W-10W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-02N between 22W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered along the coast of SE Louisiana near 29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. An area of broken multilayered clouds are over the SW Gulf from 18N-26N between 93W-99W. Scattered showers are N of Tampico Mexico. Elsewhere radar imagery shows isolated showers over S Florida moving E. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over the W Gulf, while subsidence is over N Florida. Expect the surface high in 24 hours to be off the Atlantic coast of central Florida near 29N79W. Expect return flow over the entire Gulf, with scattered showers over the W Gulf W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers over central Puerto Rico. More showers are over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and W Panama. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 60W. Upper level moisture is over the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, and Cuba. Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the the tail-end of the cold front to be over E Cuba near 21N76W with scattered showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies persist across the island as upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail. Expect in 24 hours for prefrontal showers to be over the Island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of front N of 27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A gale is within 300 nm E of front N of 29N. See above. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N37W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N W of 55W supporting the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N54W to 23N70W to E Cuba near 21N76W with convection and showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa