000 AXNT20 KNHC 161748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N68W SW to the NW Bahamas across the Florida Straits to the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 22N88W. Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring generally N of 29N within 150 nm E of the front. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to the Equator near 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 07N between 08W-15W...S of 03N between 18W-28W...and S of 04N between 35W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... While west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the basin this afternoon...a cold front continues to extend from the Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan peninsula coast near 22N88W then become stationary to the Chivela Pass region near 18N94W. Most precipitation associated with the front continues to impact areas E of the front in the SW North Atlc waters. Otherwise...a secondary push of cooler and drier air is progessing southward across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula represented by a surface trough extending from the Tampa Bay region to 26N90W. The boundaries are expected to merge across the SW North Atlc waters tonight into Friday. Elsewhere...a ridge continues to build in across the northern Gulf anchored currently by a 1022 mb high centered across eastern Texas near 30N97W. The high will move eastward through Friday providing the basin with generally light to moderate anticyclonic winds. By Friday...S-SE winds will reach moderate to fresh levels as cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the NW and north-central Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level dry and stable south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean this afternoon providing for mainly tranquil conditions at the surface. While skies remain mostly clear...the main feature impacting the basin is a cold front extending across the Yucatan Channel generating isolated showers across western Cuba and the waters N of 21N W of 82W. The front is expected to skirt across Cuba and the extreme northern Caribbean waters through Friday...otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are forecast to prevail and persist through Saturday. A localized strong pressure gradient will establish itself off the coast of Colombia by Friday night increasing winds in this region into fresh to strong levels early Monday as strong high pressure is anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies persist this afternoon across the island as upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail. The overall tranquil weather pattern is expected the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle to upper level low is centered over the NE CONUS and portions of eastern Canada providing troughing to much of the western North Atlc. This troughing supports a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N68W SW to the NW Bahamas through the Florida Straits. Aside from the near gale to gale force conditions described above in the Special Features section...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N within 180 nm E of the front. To the west of the front a secondary push of cooler and drier air progresses southward in the form of a surface trough extending from 29N78W to the Tampa Bay region and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These two boundaries are expected to merge tonight into Friday as the entire frontal system moves eastward. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N41W and a weakening 1025 mb high centered near 32N28W. The only weakness in the ridging is a surface trough within the eastern periphery of the ridge analyzed from SW of the Canary Islands near 27N18W to SE of the Azores near 36N23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN