000 AXNT20 KNHC 160601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is along 31N78W to 29N81w. SW gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, are to the north of 29N to the east of the front to 75W. Expect these conditions for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through 11N15W in Guinea-Bissau, to 04N16W, to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W, crossing the equator along 25W, to 01S29W, crossing the equator along 33W, to 02N43W. A surface trough is along 45W/46W from 07N southward. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward from 52W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level-to-upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level atmospheric support for the current cold front that is in the area is in the Atlantic Ocean, from North Carolina to the NW Bahamas. A trough from 600 mb to 800 mb passes through NE Florida to 24N86W and 23N93W. A cold front extends from a 1003 mb Atlantic Ocean low pressure center that is near 31N80W, across Florida near 28N82W, to the south central Gulf of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The front is stationary, inland, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 25N101W. A surface trough extends from the Florida Keys, through the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, into northern Guatemala. A surface ridge extends from a Texas 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 33N99W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 23N97W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from the Straits of Florida, just to the west of Andros Island, across the Florida Keys, into the Yucatan Channel, to the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between 68W and 75W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMDJ, KGRY, and KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville, Punta Gorda, and Ft. Myers. Light rain in the Key West metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner, across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery elsewhere across the area. Rainshowers are possible to the east of 70W, and from 16N northward from 70W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 16/0000 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level W wind flow is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland, and in the waters that surround Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 16/0000 UTC: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona, at 16/0000 UTC, VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling: 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during most of the 48-hour forecast period. W-to-NW wind flow will move across the area during the last 6 hours to 12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with SW wind flow, becoming W and then NW wind flow, and then solidly NW wind flow, until the last 6 hours to 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center will move on top of Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to 12 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola for the next 36 hours or so, followed by N-to-NE wind flow at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is about 900 nm to the west of Africa. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N39W to 27N48W. The front is dissipating stationary from 27N48W to 26N55W, and dissipating warm from 26N55W to 28N65W. A surface trough also is along 27N44W 24N48W 21N53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. A cold front, that is lagging behind its upper level support that already is in Africa, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 30N18W, across the Canary Islands, to 23N20W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N20W to 20N30W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 18N northward between Africa and 40W. A surface ridge passes through 32N27W to 27N33W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 24N41W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N53W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the north of the frontal boundary between 40W and 65W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT